Learn the most important poker odds, understand poker math and use it all to gain an advantage. Master all poker probabilities and count outs to win more! It could take some time to remember all of the information regarding poker hands odds and outs. However, you have a shortcut to apply correct poker math on the go and quickly calculate.
If you play any kind of poker, you probably know about outs — or you have at least heard other players talking about them. Outs are actually part of basic poker strategy, and learning how to use these will help you improve your play significantly.
Outs exist in every type of poker, but we’re now going to focus on Texas hold ’em. However, once you learn more about them, you will be able to adapt to other games as well. So what exactly are outs, and how do they work?
Essentially, an out is a card that you need to make a poker hand. If you manage to get that card on the turn or the river, you will “hit an out,” which is always a good thing. Without further ado, let’s take a look at a concrete example of how outs work.
What Are Outs: An Example
Let’s say that you have an Ace of hearts and a seven of hearts. That hand doesn’t look that well at the start, so the only thing that can help you is if you manage to have three more cards that are hearts to make a flush.
At this point, it’s fairly difficult to talk about outs, as it is too early, and too many things need to be considered. Outs are usually taken into account after the flop.
Therefore, all you have to do is decide whether you want to proceed with the game or fold. Folding at this point could seem like a fairly reasonable choice if the situation requires so, especially if a lot is at stake.
However, proceeding with the flop betting round is perfectly okay if there’s room for you to increase your bets a bit and still not lose a lot of money in the process.
Now, what we need for our outs example is that the flop shows, let’s say, a queen of hearts, a three of hearts, and a four of diamonds. The first two cards are what matters to us at this point, as they mean we have four cards that have hearts as their suits. What does that mean?
It means we need one card of the same suit to make a flush, which is five cards that have the same suit. A flush is always a welcome sight, but the probability of landing a heart on the turn or the river is something we need to take into account.
Now, our “out” card would be any card on the turn or the river that has hearts on it. At this point, a professional poker player can estimate how many outs they probably have. We have an ace, seven, queen and three. In other words, we need to assume that there are two, four, five, six, eight, nine, 10, jack, and the king of hearts still hiding somewhere in the deck.
However, we also need to take into account that some of the other players on the table might have actually received one of those cards. What’s important is that we statistically have nine possible outs.
Should you proceed at this point? Well, there’s no certain way to tell that. Poker is also a game of chance, and you can always risk and see whether you should do it. Remember that you have two chances and nine outs, so the odds seem pretty good at this point.
What you need to take into account is how high the stakes are, other players, and many other important things. Therefore, start thinking about outs as a part of every basic poker strategy to improve your game.
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Figuring out poker odds and probabilities can seem like an overwhelming task. However, with a little research and memorization, this seemingly dense topic can be made much simpler. Once you understand basic situations, such as the likelihood of being dealt certain hands, hand versus hand scenarios, how your odds change with each new card, pot odds and implied odds, you will have the kind of primer you need to become a more effective player.
How Come I Never Get Dealt Pocket Aces?
One of the most common complaints, especially among inexperienced players, is that they never get good cards. Sometimes that just comes down to a common misconception. Televised poker has the advantage of being edited down to where only the most interesting hands and the biggest pots are shown, so you are more likely to see players with pocket aces or ace-king suited than a 2-7 off-suit.
Televised poker highlights the best and most interesting hand. Your chances of being dealt pocket Aces in a game are not nearly as high.
In reality, however, your chances of being dealt any specific pair in a game of Texas Hold ‘Em are 220:1. And since most games you play at a casino will only deal about 30-45 hands an hour, even with professional dealers, you can’t expect a never-ending string of aces and kings.
Hand vs. Hand
This type of scenario comes into play most often in tournaments. And since there are so many basic scenarios that can be applied across a number of different types of match-ups, it’s mainly about memorizing those basic odds.
For instance, when you have a pocket pair and are facing only one opponent with a lower pocket pair, you are about a 4.5:1 favorite, meaning that for every eleven times the hand plays out you are likely to win nine. Another frequently seen scenario would be a pocket pair versus two over cards, e.g., pocket queens versus ace-king. In that case, which is often referred to as a race, the pocket pair is about a 1.2:1 favorite, essentially a coin flip.
Here are some odds for other basic hand-to-hand match-ups in Texas Hold ‘Em:
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- Pair vs. 2 Under Cards – 4.9:1
- Pair vs. 1 Over Card, 1 Under Card – 2.5:1
- 2 Over Cards vs. 2 Under Cards – 1.7:1
In-Hand Odds
This is where poker odds begin to get more complicated. No matter what kind of game you’re playing, as the hand progresses, more cards get dealt and bets get made, the odds change accordingly. In Hold ‘Em, just because you have the best hand on the flop doesn’t mean you’re the projected favorite to win once all the cards are dealt. Top pair on the flop may seem sweet, but if there are possible flush and straight draws, you may just be putting money into what will eventually become someone else’s pot.
One way to simplify the complexity of post-flop betting is to look at the odds certain types of draws face. That way you can decide whether it is worth it to draw against a better hand, or how much you need to bet to protect your hand. Like head-to-head odds, there are a few basic scenarios, and if you memorize the odds inherent in them, they can be applied as a rule of thumb. They will also help you better understand more difficult concepts like pot and implied odds.
For in-hand odds you need to know how many outs a certain hand has, e.g., in Hold ‘Em, a flush draw has nine outs – you have two of the suit in your hand and there are two on the board, meaning there are nine of that suit left that would give you a flush. Then it’s a matter of knowing what the chances are one of those outs will come on the turn and/or river.
Here are some odds for common post-flop scenarios in Hold ‘Em:
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Understanding Poker Odds
- Inside Straight Draw (4 outs) – 10.8:1 on the turn, 5.07:1 turn or river
- Open-Ended Straight Draw (8 outs) – 4.88:1 on turn, 2.18:1 on turn or river
- Flush Draw (9 outs) – 4.22:1 on turn, 1.86:1 on turn or river
Pot and Implied Odds
Poker Odds Outs
This final category of odds involves a little more subjectivity than the previous ones, and even invites a little bit of artistry on the player’s part. Pot odds are fairly simple. You look at the situation, i.e., you have a flush draw after the flop, and calculate how much money is in the pot and what it will cost you to call a bet. Then you figure out whether the potential payoff makes it worth calling to see another card.
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In Hold ‘Em, with a flush draw on the flop you are likely to make your hand a little more than 1 out of every three times if you see the turn and river. But on the turn only the odds of hitting your flush are slightly worse than 4:1. So if there is already $120 in the pot and your opponent bets $40, you would be calling $40 to win $160 (the previous pot plus his bet), meaning you have 4:1 pot odds, since you would win four times the amount you are putting in.
Poker Card Odds
In this particular scenario, the pot odds line up almost exactly: 4:1 on your money, approximately 4:1 that you hit on the next card. This is where experience and intuition would come into play. Analyze the situation, your opponent and your feeling about the likely direction of the hand to make a decision.
Poker Odds And Outs Chart
Implied odds are where you factor in the amount of money you think is likely to be added to the pot later in the hand by your opponent(s) after your bet or call. In that scenario, you may think your opponent will call even if you make your flush. That means, not only are you calling to win the $160, you think you’ll be able to get another x amount of dollars out of him on the turn or river.
Once you understand how to factor odds into your betting equation you will come to the table with far more tools and information at your disposal – and in poker, the more tricks and knowledge you have, the better your odds of winning.